We had similar issues. Our response was smaller (fully staffed) teams and time boxing. It improved things but there was still a way to go.

Eventually I took a look at the numbers; a years worth of estimates and discovered the magic number.

I’ve left the team now, but if I were there we’d be working off that average number if stories completed as our guide, and that planning & breakdown would be happening as the story kicks off.

Today, we’ll estimate in time units – days/hours, plus assigning variable risk factors in percentages.

In terms of actuals, it really, really depends on the client and contract. Sometimes it matters, sometimes it doesn’t. Estimates in consulting are about setting expectations, so we want to make sure that it’s more in terms of a client knowing how much something is *likely* to cost, and not surprising them in a bad way.

If we’re under, everyone’s happy, if we’re over, we’ll examine what was off.

I should note that I have had good experiences with group estimations in IT and product groups, but I’m so far removed from those times that I’m not sure what a different approach would have looked like.

I do have a couple questions.

Were there maybe just too many people at the meetings and on the team to begin with?

What are your estimation units today, still using time?

When you compare against actuals, is there a standard deviation you’ve identified? What do you do with that information?